Search results

Relying on Clive Granger's many and varied contributions to econometric analysis, this paper considers some of the key econometric considerations involved in estimating Taylor-type rules for US data. We focus on the roles of unit roots, cointegration, structural breaks, and non-linearities to make the case that most existing estimates are based on an unbalanced regression. A variety of estimates reveal that neglected cointegration results in the omission of a necessary error correction term and that Federal Reserve (Fed) reactions during the Greenspan era appear to have been asymmetric. We argue that error correction and non-linearities may be one way to estimate Taylor rules over long samples when the underlying policy regime may have changed significantly.

The latest generation of research into macroeconomic policy has turned from more technical aspects of optimal control and expectations formation to consideration of the policymaking institutions themselves. More and more countries have moved towards greater degrees of central bank independence, including many developing economies as well the member countries of the European Central Bank. What still is not generally settled among economists is how to measure the stance of policy and the institutional features of the policymaking process. The purpose of this paper is to assess prevailing monetary and fiscal policies.

The paper takes the form of a review encompassing many different measurements of policy stance and policymaking processes. The authors begin with monetary policy followed by an analysis of central bank institutions. The next sections turn to fiscal policy and the need to adjust budget balance for the state of the business cycle. There is then a brief concluding section.

The authors show in this review that fiscal and monetary rules, and economists' understanding of them, have changed substantially over the years. While on one level there is greater consensus, there have been new questions raised in the process that leave plenty of room for further ongoing research in these key policy areas as well as the optimal design of the design of the monetary and fiscal institutions concerned.

The paper provides a review of the existing literature updated and applied with reference to recent events, including the global financial crisis.

The empirical properties of benchmark revisions to key US macroeconomic aggregates are examined. News versus noise impact of revisions is interpreted via the cointegration property of successive benchmark revisions. Cointegration breaks down in the last two years before a benchmark revision. Hence, we conclude that there is some information content in benchmark revisions. This last point is illustrated by reporting that inflation forecasts could be improved by the addition of a time series that reflects benchmark revisions to real GDP. Standard backward- and forward-looking Phillips curves are used to explore the statistical significance of benchmark revisions.

We thank the Simon Center for Regional Forecasting at the John Cook School of Business at Saint Louis University – especially Jack Strauss, Director of the Simon Center and Ellen Harshman, Dean of the Cook School – for its generosity and hospitality in hosting a conference during the summer of 2006 where many of the chapters appearing in this volume were presented. The conference provided a forum for discussing many important issues relating to forecasting in the presence of structural breaks and model uncertainty, and participants viewed the conference as helping to significantly improve the quality of the research appearing in the chapters of this volume.³ This volume is part of Elsevier's new series, Frontiers of Economics and Globalization, and we also thank Hamid Beladi for his support as an Editor of the series.